Wednesday 5th March 2014

Finding value winners during the week often requires looking beyond the obvious. I'm often saying to clients that each race is an individual event, a unique puzzle that begs to be solved. Eagle Farm Race 4 on Wednesday 5-Mar-14 was no exception. Click here to see the ratings - EAGLE FARM.

With only 6 runners after scratchings it was sure that the favourite, Tiger Dimejan  was going to be short, and it was, starting in the red at $1.80 ($1.92 on BF). Usually these races are best left alone, but this one was different. 5 out of the 6 were first up, including the odds on favourite. And, uncharacteristically of small races, in this race, there were two very long priced outsiders, one at $320 and the other $130 on betfair. At those odds I can tell you they wont win even in a 6 horse field. That just leaves 4 to deal with, of which 3 were first up.

Exotic Sequel was the highest rated and 2nd on the APs, and normally would grab my attention, especially with Damien Browne riding (22% WSR). But the horse hasn't run for 14 months! That is a bad sign. It takes a monumental training effort to win after 14 months, regardless of the jockey. He was $2.90 in betting, and was in my opinion way under the odds.

The favourite Tiger Dimejan, also resuming hasn't raced for over 11 months.  Another ordinary sign. When a single horse is way unders that means something else could be overs, but when the two favourites are both looking suspicious there's definitely a great opportunity. In this case there's only 2 horses left Katzenpfoetchen and Beaufort Gyre.

Katzenpfoetchen's last start can be completely ignored, he was sent out at $370 in Saturday class, however prior to that he won. Beaufort Gyre was resuming from a short spell and won first up last campaign on a slow track, so he was a definite chance as well. Knowing all this, Katzenpfoetchen was sent out at $20 and Beaufort Gyre at $11 on betfair.

In what was essentially a 4 horse race, those odds were ridiculous. Needless to say they did not run according to their respective odds, Katzenpfoetchen won easily with Beaufort Gyre an uncontested second.