Blog Archives

Saturday 26th April 2014

Well if you are a top 2 punter like Roger describes in Handicapping My Way then Saturday was your day! But as most of you know, that's not the way I punt and the value bets in the smaller fields were hard to find. Thankfully Hot Snitzel helped, but other than that I had lean one. Operational missed by a whisker at $9 in Ascot Race 2. Never mind the worm will turn.

Sat 26-Apr-14  Rc  Tab Horse AP Price
RANDWICK 1 8 Kaypers $3.30 $4.60
2 2 Hot Snitzel $3.20 $8.00
SANDOWN 2 5 Legcut $8.00 $17.00
4 4 Khutulun $4.00 $6.00
5 4 Search Squad $9.10 $15.00
EAGLE FARM 4 7 Elusive Storm $3.80 $6.00
6 4 Hopfgarten $3.80 $8.50
8 8 Time To Plunder $2.60 $4.00
MORPHETTVILLE 4 1 Gamblin' Guru $2.90 $3.60
ASCOT 4 3 Drumnoorum $2.30 $4.40
6 1 Cool Trade $2.60 $3.00



Saturday 19th April 2014

The results don't get much better than Saturday. The last day of the Championships and subscribers completely cleaned up. Diamond Drille at $101 was a huge result. And Natural Dancer at $51 just shows you that value still abounds at the track. I know some of you got as much as $126 on Natural Dancer. Well done!

I know a lot of you dutch the top 2/3 in which case the results were even better than shown below. We almost picked the card at Randwick and Ascot.

Sat 19-Apr-14  Rc  Tab Horse AP Price
RANDWICK 2 5 Beauty's Beast $3.30 $9.00
4 1 Sidestep $3.60 $4.80
5 7 Diamond Drille $7.10 $101.00
6 3 Rising Romance $3.50 $6.00
7 4 The Offer $3.20 $3.90
8 2 It's a Dundeel $4.90 $5.20
CAULFIELD 5 4 The Quarterback $4.20 $5.50
EAGLE FARM 2 1 Angusroy $3.40 $5.20
4 4 Shinji $4.00 $9.80
5 2 Natural Dancer $6.20 $51.00
7 3 Excellantes $3.80 $5.10
ASCOT 3 1 Hel Cool $3.70 $9.00
4 3 I'm a Flash Unit $2.50 $3.95
6 8 Thunderluv'n $7.80 $14.00
8 2 Right Honourable $3.60 $6.00
OAKBANK 2 4 Nishiazabu $3.90 $5.50
7 3 Siwa Lady $2.30 $5.40



Saturday 12th April 2014

The results for the first day of the Championships were outstanding. For those that emailed me, thank you. I know several of you did extremely well.

Sat 12-Apr-14  Rc  Tab Horse AP Price
RANDWICK 4 3 The Offer $2.30 $2.70
5 8 Peggy Jean $3.40 $5.00
7 3 Lankan Ruppee $2.40 $4.00
8 4 Sacred Falls $6.60 $11.00
9 1 Arabian Gold $5.30 $7.00
CAULFIELD 3 14 Tried and Tired $3.70 $4.00
7 8 Halle Rocks $8.70 $21.00
8 19 Kitten on the Run $9.00 $14.00
DOOMBEN 1 4 Sovereign Son $4.60 $9.80
2 2 Brave Ali $4.20 $11.50
3 3 Elusive Storm $2.70 $3.20
8 9 Just a Perla $2.30 $4.60
ASCOT 3 2 Rubin Sky $2.40 $10.00
7 3 Respondent $3.00 $9.40
MORPHETTVILLE 1 3 Oridane $3.20 $48.00



Sunday 9th March 2014

Sun 9-Mar-14  Rc  Tab Horse AP Price
STONY CREEK 7 5 Fionn McCool $4.20 $18.50
SUNSHINE COAST 3 4 Indiana Heart $2.10 $3.80
6 2 Craiglea Masta $2.80 $4
BUNBURY 7 4 Stagnite $4.40 $10
8 3 Amorino $2.70 $4
CANBERRA 4 9 Rose Of Falvelon $8.80 $13.50



Saturday 8th March 2014

Sat 8-Mar-14  Rc Tab  Horse AP Price
DOOMBEN 1 1 No Problem $2.3 $3.5
6 7 Buakaw $3.9 $8
FLEMINGTON 6 2 Lankan Rupee $2.8 $6
9 11 Sistine Demon $2.4 $3.4
WARWICK FARM 2 1 Alpha Miss $5.1 $16
3 5 Territory $5.7 $9
5 2 Boban $3.1 $5
ASCOT 6 8 Gee Pee Ess $8.2 $20



Wednesday 5th March 2014

Finding value winners during the week often requires looking beyond the obvious. I'm often saying to clients that each race is an individual event, a unique puzzle that begs to be solved. Eagle Farm Race 4 on Wednesday 5-Mar-14 was no exception. Click here to see the ratings - EAGLE FARM.

With only 6 runners after scratchings it was sure that the favourite, Tiger Dimejan  was going to be short, and it was, starting in the red at $1.80 ($1.92 on BF). Usually these races are best left alone, but this one was different. 5 out of the 6 were first up, including the odds on favourite. And, uncharacteristically of small races, in this race, there were two very long priced outsiders, one at $320 and the other $130 on betfair. At those odds I can tell you they wont win even in a 6 horse field. That just leaves 4 to deal with, of which 3 were first up.

Exotic Sequel was the highest rated and 2nd on the APs, and normally would grab my attention, especially with Damien Browne riding (22% WSR). But the horse hasn't run for 14 months! That is a bad sign. It takes a monumental training effort to win after 14 months, regardless of the jockey. He was $2.90 in betting, and was in my opinion way under the odds.

The favourite Tiger Dimejan, also resuming hasn't raced for over 11 months.  Another ordinary sign. When a single horse is way unders that means something else could be overs, but when the two favourites are both looking suspicious there's definitely a great opportunity. In this case there's only 2 horses left Katzenpfoetchen and Beaufort Gyre.

Katzenpfoetchen's last start can be completely ignored, he was sent out at $370 in Saturday class, however prior to that he won. Beaufort Gyre was resuming from a short spell and won first up last campaign on a slow track, so he was a definite chance as well. Knowing all this, Katzenpfoetchen was sent out at $20 and Beaufort Gyre at $11 on betfair.

In what was essentially a 4 horse race, those odds were ridiculous. Needless to say they did not run according to their respective odds, Katzenpfoetchen won easily with Beaufort Gyre an uncontested second.

Wed 6-Mar-14  Rc  Tab Horse AP BFSP
EAGLE FARM 4 5 Katzenpfoetchen $4.20 $20.00
ASCOT 4 2 Fabulistic $2.70 $3.77
5 9 Dabang $9.00 $21.38
8 9 True Storm $3.80 $5.54
SANDOWN 5 10 Taiyoo $3.30 $5.90



Sunday 2nd March 2014

Sun 2-Mar-14  Rc  Tab Horse AP BFSP
WANGARATTA 3 5 Hunter Island $6.40 $10.50
4 2 PlayMaster $5.00 $6.69
7 4 Worth A Ransom $4.40 $7.20
ARMIDALE 6 3 Single Spirit $2.80 $3.68
BAIRNSDALE 5 1 With Danger $7.40 $36.00
BUNBURY 5 4 Palace Cat $2.20 $4.00
7 8 That's The Way $6.10 $17.50
MURRAY BRIDGE 6 1 Not A Zerprise $3.00 $6.28
SUNSHINE COAST 3 4 Champange Blaze $4.10 $22.44
5 1 Star Dragon $3.70 $7.64



Saturday 1st March 2014

Sat 1-Mar-14  Rc Tab  Horse AP BFSP
ASCOT 1 2 Ziva Star $5.10 $10.18
2 2 Jezpark $4.80 $8.95
3 1 Bedamijo $7.40 $31.84
8 4 Miki Two Toes $2.50 $9.47
EAGLE FARM 3 1 Heartfelt Quest $3.10 $17.02
6 5 Kempelly $3.50 $4.93
8 1 Londehero $3.50 $4.30
FLEMINGTON 5 8 Five All $4.70 $16.57
6 1 Mouro $3.40 $4.80
MORPHETTVILLE 5 1 Riziz $2.50 $4.79
6 1 Magical Pearl $2.90 $7.40
7 7 Distillation $4.70 $12.96
ROSEHILL 2 1 Territory $3.90 $15.50



Our Clients Say:

Do hope I have not bored you mate but just needed to share how RB Ratings and some analysis/data available to me has transformed my whole approach. Thank you John.

Phil K.    July 22, 2016   NSW   

Hey John, I am impressed with the swiftness and length and quality of your reply...thank you very much...you must be so fast on the key board.

Peter D.    August 6, 2015   NSW   

John,
Well done!
Big meeting, mid to large fields, 10 races. Only 2 races where the RB Rtg/Rtg2 didn't win or place. A nice few bob for my Christmas Club on the rest.
The other thing it does is show the value of the Ratings where all the horses are really trying.

Roger B.    April 3, 2016   TAS   

Well done at Hobart today. 6 winners on top and a second rater wins at $9.
Great job.

Terry W.    January 24, 2016   VIC   

I have learnt a great deal and in particular your teaching on value overlay in line with the AP pricing has given me an edge and confidence in my investing.

Phil K.    July 22, 2016   NSW